2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE LOOKING LIKE THE HUNGER GAMES
Donald Trump and Ben Carson accuse Ted Cruz of cheating. Trump wants a do-over of the Iowa vote and threatens a lawsuit. Low polling GOP candidates are dropping out like flies. Hillary and Bernie exchange opinions of the definition of what it means to be a "Progressive." The latest Presidential nomination circus now is looking more and more like a new installment of "The Hunger Games."
Many will say this is politics as usual. However, I think it is different this year because of two wild cards. And those cards come from each political party. Donald Trump's latest tirade may not be what you think. Perhaps it could be setting up the basis for an eventual third-party run if he is not the GOP nominee. Think about it. He could claim he wasn't "treated fairly" at the Iowa caucus and therefore this invalidates his promise not to run as the third wheel. To do so would be a disaster for the GOP and almost certainly insure Hillary's election.
Speaking of Hillary, here's the other unknown. Despite her protestations that this is all due to Republican dirty tricks, her email investigation is being run by a politically unbiased FBI, Inspector General and now apparently even the State Department. Three outcomes are possible here. #1. She is freed of any criminal charges. #2. The FBI recommends some charges and indictment but the Obama DOJ declines to prosecute. #3. FBI recommends indictment and DOJ concurs. I think the likelihood of #3 is close to zero. I think the probability of #1 or 2 are about 50/50. #1 would be a huge boost to her campaign and #2 could mortally wound her—unless of course the Don runs the above-mentioned track.
In thinking about this election I have come to two conclusions. First, the only other Senator to win the Presidential Election in recent history other than Barack Obama was JFK. We will never know what kind of President he would have been in the end but his early actions and speeches reflect favorably on his potential place in history. As far as Mr. Obama, his eight-year run is no less historic but depending upon your political POV, he has been nothing short of amazing or a disaster.
Secondly, and more importantly, in order to be elected President there is one common trait that is required. And that is you have to be likeable to a majority of voters. Again, their politics aside, both George W. Bush and Barack Obama are likeable men. And ditto for Bill Clinton, Bush One, Ronald Reagan, and Jimmy Carter. And this brings us to the current field. Hillary Clinton may have paper qualifications, but she rates highest in polls of untrustworthiness and is not likeable. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are not likeable. Ben Carson is likeable but he has lost me, and many others, with several off the wall opinions and comments. Which leaves us with Bernie Sanders and Marco Rubio.
I don't think Bernie has much of a chance of winning the nomination. I place Rubio's chances at even money. And there you have my armchair amateur pundit opinion. Above all else it should be entertaining.